Philly Sports Record

Rauuuuul vs. Pat the Bat

Some early morning food for thought in cost-per-item form:

Enjoy your Saturday.

And the Best Fit Is…

With Brett Myers likely out for the season, rookie Antonio Bastardo on the disabled list with a shoulder strain, and the collective 5.19 ERA of Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton, the Phillies badly need another arm in the rotation. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has stated several times that he is looking to acquire a front-line starter, and manager Charlie Manuel has made comments about his desire to add an ace to compliment Cole Hamels.

The trade market is only just beginning to develop as teams drop further out of contention and throw in the towel for the season. But the market has not evolved as many had expected. Toronto’s recent surge almost certainly takes Roy Halladay off the market, Astros owner Drayton McLane won’t give GM Ed Wade the nod to trade Roy Oswalt, and injuries have made Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb longshots to be moved.

But not every pitcher will mesh with the demand to play the majority of his games at Citizens Bank Park. The key is to find a guy who records the majority of his outs on ground balls, considering that CBP gives such an extreme advantage to flyball hitters. Since its inaugural opening in 2004, Citizens Bank Park has been consistently ranked in the top half of hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, according to ESPN’s park factor calculations. The porches are short and the winds often blow out, serving as a thorn in the side of pitchers from both dugouts. The stadium’s dimensions can considerably alter pitching statistics unless the pitcher learns how to modify his game and keep the ball on the ground for his defense, thus making it crucial for Amaro to modify the pitching rotation to best suit the ballpark. For example, Padres righty Chris Young is a perfect fit for the massive dimensions at Petco Park as he records nearly 55% of his outs on flyballs. On the other end of the spectrum is Brandon Webb who pitches at hitter-friendly Chase Field, but manages to record an outrageous 64% of his outs on groundballs.

It has been a tricky road for pitcher Joe Blanton since moving from the mammoth Oakland Coliseum (ranked 10th-most pitcher-friendly park from 2004-08) to cozy Citizens Bank Park. Let’s take a look at how Blanton recorded his outs with Oakland and Philadelphia:

Known as more of a groundball pitcher in his days with Oakland, Blanton’s groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB) has dropped since being traded to the Phillies last July. He has allowed twice as many home runs per nine innings since being traded, largely because flyballs that would be caught in Oakland are several rows deep into the stands in Philadelphia. While he helped the team win a World Series last October, the verdict is still out on wheter or not the Blanton acquisition was a sound long-term investment, considering the young talent former GM Pat Gillick sacrificed.

But while Blanton struggles to adjust to a small ballpark, veteran Jamie Moyer has shown an impressive ability to quickly adapt to tighter park dimensions:

Acquired in a waiver trade with the Seattle Mariners in August 2006, Moyer’s story is much like Blanton’s in that they both moved from extreme pitcher-friendly ballparks (Seatte’s Safeco Field was the sixth-most pitcher-friendly park from 2002-06) to hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. But what has set Moyer apart is his ability to alter his game plan to take better advantage of the superior defense of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, and Ryan Howard. Since the statistics became available in 2002, Moyer has transformed from a flyball pitcher at Safeco Field to a groundball pitcher in Philadelphia. His groundballs have increased by nearly 5% while he has cut down on flyballs by 5.4% since donning red pinstripes.

But there are simply too many variables in projecting a pitcher’s ability to adjust to a new park, so let’s shift our attention to some names that have been connected to the Phillies in recent weeks.

Most recently, the Phillies were rumored to have had serious interest in Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang, and SI’s Jon Heyman even reported that Amaro had offered up a prospect for the sinkerballer but was turned down. Even so, the point is now moot because Wang landed on the disabled list this past weekend with a shoulder strain and won’t even begin a rehab program until after next week’s All-Star break.

But there are still a few decent names on the market, albeit most options are not the prototypical aces that Amaro has been searching for. Second-tier pitchers include Arizona’s Doug Davis and Jon Garland, Colorado’s Jason Marquis, Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang, and Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm and Zach Duke. Davis and Marquis are both free agents at season’s end while the rest are either signed long-term with their respective clubs, or, in the case of Jon Garland, hold a mutual option for 2010 with their current team.

Looking purely at groundball statistics, Jason Marquis would seem to be be the best fit, having just gotten the nod for his first All-Star appearance:

Marquis will be a free agent at season’s end and shouldn’t cost Amaro too much in terms of a prospect haul. The current problem lies in the Rockies’ resurgence that has put them just two games back of the wildcard and still very much in contention. But Marquis’ numbers have been incredibly consistent over the past several seasons and he is in the midst of a career year. His HR/9 rating has been dropping steadily and he pitched fairly well at Wrigley Field, which was ranked as the second and eighth hitter-friendliest park in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

If he becomes available, Marquis would serve as a fairly inexpensive replacement for Rodrigo Lopez and give the Phillies a much-needed sinkerballer for the rest of the year. But short-term replacements don’t carry much merit when they walk in November.

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports had reported last month that the Phillies had looked at Pittsburgh southpaw Paul Maholm, but that Amaro was unimpressed and moved on. To preface my argument, let’s have a look at Amaro’s  gem of a quote this past May regarding his take on defensive statistics when looking at possible acquisitions:

“I do not buy numbers defensively. At all. I look at fielding percentage. But that other business? I don’t buy it a lick.”

Well, Shane Victorino has a .994 fielding percentage this year. He has made one error. But Matt Stairs, well, he’s flashing a 1.000 fielding percentage and hasn’t made an error since 2007. According to the Rubetarian philosophy, that must mean that Stairs’ defensive skills are superior to those of Victorino. “That other business” probably refers to the innumerable defensive metrics calculated by sabermetricians far and wide that give detailed ratings for every aspect of a player’s performance. If Amaro feels that way about defense, let’s assume that he feels the same about pitching, because passing on Paul Maholm is the wrong move.

Maholm, a 27 year-old lefty and groundball extraordinaire, just signed a three-year, $14.5M contract with an option for 2012 this past January, and should definitely not be on the market. But if Pirates GM Neal Huntington wants to trade him, he is the guy Amaro should be pursuing aggressively. Take a look at his numbers:

While his ERA and WHIP might not be overly impressive, his groundball rates are outstanding. For all the talk Kyle Kendrick got about being a groundball pitcher in 2007, KK’s GB/FB ratio was just 1.48 compared to Maholm’s liftime mark of 1.87. Pittsburgh’s PNC Park sits on the fence between being a neutral park and a pitcher’s park, which helps illustrate the insignificance of field dimensions in relation to Maholm’s pitching style. Maholm is signed very cheaply and is gaining more experience each season. Plug him into a clubhouse with Jamie Moyer and put the Phillies’ defense behind him and his numbers will be sure to improve even more.

The prospect haul to acquire a pitcher like Maholm would likely be massive, but it is a gamble that the organization should make. The Phillies minor league system is stacked with solid pitching prospects at every level, and Amaro could certainly part with a couple (not named Kyle Drabek) to bring in a proven pitcher that utilizes the infield defense.

If Amaro can’t get Maholm, let’s hope he gets Marquis.

Photo courtesy of Reuters Pictures.

Jimmy Rollins Needs Refurbishing

As everybody can tell, Jimmy Rollins has been in the slump of all slumps thus far in 2009. But it’s at the point in the season where we begin to wonder if this is really a slump, or just the first act of a terrible, horrific, abysmal, tragic, unbelievably awful overall season that is nearing intermission.

After last night’s loss to the Rays and yet another 0-4 performance, Rollins is hitting at a .211/.254/.328 clip. But manager Charlie Manuel insists on keeping him in the leadoff spot. In fact, to quote Manuel this past Monday:

“Knowing Jimmy like I do, I’m telling you right now. I don’t think it matters where he hits. I think I could hit him ninth and if he’s going to get some hits, I think he’s going to get them. If we move Jimmy down, then who are we going to play there? And I think I know who you’re going to say. At the same time, what kind of on-base percentage does that guy carry?”

That guy carries an on-base percentage 117 points higher than our leadoff guy. Manuel is referring to Shane Victorino, who is hitting .305/.371/.462 and has had two separate double-digit hitting streaks this season.

But hey, I’m not the manager. Maybe Charlie has a point. Right? Right?

From the leadoff position this year, Rollins is hitting .198/.241/.293. From any other spot (batting fifth, sixth, and ninth), he’s hitting .409/.458/.818, albeit in a very small sample size of 22 at bats over five starts and three pinch-hit appearances.

Rollins first left the comfort of his leadoff spot and batted fifth on May 2, going 1-4 with a walk. He returned to batting leadoff the next day and went 4-14 (.286) over his next three games before falling off again. Manuel next batted him fifth on May 12 and 13, and Rollins responded by going 2-7 with a home run. It seemed like something clicked, as Rollins returned to the leadoff spot the next day and went 15-41 (.366) over his next nine games and saw his batting average peak at .240. But it was short lived, as he tailed off and went on to hit .161 over his next 13 games.

Rollins was moved down to the six-hole on June 7 and 9 in Los Angeles and New York, respectively. Continuing the trend, he went 5-8 with a home run. Since returning to the leadoff spot June 10, he’s gone 7-56 (.125) with a .194 OBP in his last 13 games.

Meanwhile, Victorino has been getting on base a respectable amount and hasn’t been popping up to foul territory behind third base like our current leadoff hitter. Manuel seems too stubborn to consider tinkering with his lineup on at least a semi-permanent basis, so it looks like we’ll be stuck watching constant outs from Jimmy “I’ll bat .400 in May” Rollins.

With a lineup that feeds off the “When Jimmy goes, we go” mentality, Jimmy isn’t going. And it’s catching up to the rest of the team, since Rollins was 6-43 (.140) on the recent homestand when the Phillies dropped eight of nine.

Oh, but how did Rollins really do in the month of May, you ask? Well, it looks like .238 is the new .400.

Ibanez Lands on the 15-Day DL

Disappointing news for all Phillies fans to wake up to this morning: your new left fielder and leading vote-getter for outfielders in the All-Star Game this year just hit the DL with a groin strain that has been hampering him since mid-April.

The team will undoubtedly notice a glaring hole where Ibanez’s 1.027 OPS once was, and callup John Mayberry is unlikely to fill that void in the short-term.

But on a more positive note, hopefully Mayberry’s promotion back to the major leagues will put the wheels in motion for outfield prospect Michael Taylor to make the jump to AAA-Lehigh Valley. Taylor has been stellar in AA-Reading this season, posting a line of .333/.400/.562/.962 and is in the top five in just about every offensive category in the Eastern League.

The Prospect Pasture - May 12

The month of May has been good to some prospects, but pretty bad to others. Let’s start with the good:

Single-A Clearwater’s Kyle Drabek, the Phillies’ fifth-best prospect as ranked by Baseball America, currently leads the Florida State League in innings pitched (40.2) and strikeouts (51). Drabek’s closest competition on the strikeout leaderboard is Lakeland’s Duane Below with just 38 punchouts. The 2006 first-round pick has a 2.21 ERA to go along with his 1.131 WHIP and should be in line for a promotion to AA Reading at some point this summer if he can continue his dominance.

Clearwater outfielder Dominic Brown leads the Florida State League in total bases (69), slugging percentage (.612) and OPS (1.014). He has been an offensive machine, made evident by his .327 average, six home runs and 26 RBI. He’s currently batting .351 in his last 10 games with two home runs and 11 RBI.

Reading southpaw Antonio Bastardo has been impressive since transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation. He threw six innings of one-hit ball last night and recorded 10 punchouts. Bastardo is flashing a 1.77 ERA and 0.787 WHIP as a starter. He leads the Eastern League in overall WHIP (0.830) and his overall ERA (1.63) is fourth-best on the leaderboards.

But it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for everybody.

Lehigh Valley starter and second-ranked prospect Carlos Carrasco has been struggling badly of late, giving up 13 earned runs in 9.1 total innings over his last two starts. His ERA has jumped from a respectable 4.50 to an Eaton-esque 6.62 since May 7. It is still early in the season, but he is losing value if the Phillies consider moving him in a July trade.

Drew Carpenter, Carrasco’s teammate and fellow starter, has also been having trouble in his last two starts. He has given up four runs in each of his last two starts, which lasted five and six innings, respectively. He has not been as prone to the big inning as Carrasco, so hopefully Carpenter can straighten himself out quickly.

Photos courtesy MiLB.com.

Jimmy Rollins and his Quest for .400

As everybody knows, Jimmy Rollins has been known for his predictions the past few years. After starting this season in a terrible offensive funk, Rollins made another bold prediction about two weeks ago on April 27, when he was quoted as saying that he felt ready to hit .400 for the next month.

Well, the crystal ball seems a bit foggy right now. He’s batting .171 (7-for-41) this May, with five runs scored, three RBI, and zero stolen bases to go along with a .237 OBP.

Let’s say Rollins gets 111 at-bats this May (his career average for the month). He will need to record 38 hits in his next 70 at-bats to reach .400 for the month. That’s a .543 clip for the next three weeks.

To his credit, he has not been incorrect yet. After declaring the Phillies the “team to beat” in 2007, the Phillies won their division and advanced to the postseason for the first time in 14 years. Next was his proclamation that the Phillies would win 100 games in 2008. The team went on to win 103, with the final win coming as the World Series clincher.

It isn’t impossible, but Rollins may have out-predicted himself on this one.

Photo courtesy Steve Nesius / Associated Press.

Why is Mike Koplove Still an IronPig?

Meet Mike Koplove, baseball journeyman. The 32-year-old reliever from South Philly took the opportunity to sign a minor league contract with his hometown team this past offseason and was one of the Phillies’ final roster cuts, as he even made the trip to Citizens Bank Park for the two-game preseason series against the Rays. But once catcher Ronny Paulino was traded to San Francisco (and then immediately flipped to Florida) for reliever Jack Taschner, Koplove was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley as an insurance policy for the major league club.

Koplove’s submarine-style delivery has been baffling the opposition, and the only run he allowed this season was from an RBI single on April 10, just about a month ago. He’s thrown 15.2 innings through 12 appearances with a 1.340 WHIP and a 0.57 ERA. He’s averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine — a number that bests both Jake Peavy and Dan Haren who rank fourth and fifth in the MLB in strikeouts, respectively.

Koplove is a guy who can go two innings if he has to, and it’s a shame that he’s stuck in the minors right now. He’s had major league success with the Diamondbacks from 2001 - 2006 but hasn’t been given a chance in three years. If relievers like Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin, and Jack Taschner continue to struggle, maybe a shakeup will become necesary to get the bullpen back in line. Getting bumped up to a major league contract wouldn’t hurt Koplove either. The extra cash could go a long way towards getting some protection for those bloody knuckles of his.

Photo courtesy MiLB.com.

Flyers Taking a Peek at Ray Emery

Strange news today as Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren admitted that he’s looking into goaltender Ray Emery. Known for his bad temper, speeding tickets, and punching out a trainer on his current Russian team, the potential of adding Emery to the current roster would steer the team even more towards the style of the mid-1970s Broad Street Bullies, especially considering the presence of two clear-cut enforcers in Riley Cote and Dan Carcillo.

Signing Emery would certainly bring a questionable attitude into the locker room, but he would likely be willing to sign a one-year contract, leaving the door open for the organization to use him as a temporary replacement and take a look at next year’s free agent goaltender class. Marty Biron, who is now an unrestricted free agent, is currently demanding at least three years.

In 134 career games between the pipes, Emery has a .907 save percentage to go along with a 2.71 GAA average. Biron averages 2.59 GAA and .911 save percentage.

Replacing Biron with Emery would be an ironic way to deal with the goalie situation, considering Emery won a rare goalie fight against Biron in 2007.

Next year’s free agent goalie class includes Minnesota’s Niklas Backstrom (2.24 GAA, .923 SV%), Boston’s Tim Thomas (2.62 GAA, .918 SV%), Edmonton’s Dwayne Roloson (2.62 GAA, .910 SV%),  and Los Angeles’ Erik Ersberg (2.58 GAA, .911 SV%) to name a few.