Rauuuuul vs. Pat the Bat

Some early morning food for thought in cost-per-item form:

Enjoy your Saturday.

And the Best Fit Is…

With Brett Myers likely out for the season, rookie Antonio Bastardo on the disabled list with a shoulder strain, and the collective 5.19 ERA of Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton, the Phillies badly need another arm in the rotation. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has stated several times that he is looking to acquire a front-line starter, and manager Charlie Manuel has made comments about his desire to add an ace to compliment Cole Hamels.

The trade market is only just beginning to develop as teams drop further out of contention and throw in the towel for the season. But the market has not evolved as many had expected. Toronto’s recent surge almost certainly takes Roy Halladay off the market, Astros owner Drayton McLane won’t give GM Ed Wade the nod to trade Roy Oswalt, and injuries have made Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb longshots to be moved.

But not every pitcher will mesh with the demand to play the majority of his games at Citizens Bank Park. The key is to find a guy who records the majority of his outs on ground balls, considering that CBP gives such an extreme advantage to flyball hitters. Since its inaugural opening in 2004, Citizens Bank Park has been consistently ranked in the top half of hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, according to ESPN’s park factor calculations. The porches are short and the winds often blow out, serving as a thorn in the side of pitchers from both dugouts. The stadium’s dimensions can considerably alter pitching statistics unless the pitcher learns how to modify his game and keep the ball on the ground for his defense, thus making it crucial for Amaro to modify the pitching rotation to best suit the ballpark. For example, Padres righty Chris Young is a perfect fit for the massive dimensions at Petco Park as he records nearly 55% of his outs on flyballs. On the other end of the spectrum is Brandon Webb who pitches at hitter-friendly Chase Field, but manages to record an outrageous 64% of his outs on groundballs.

It has been a tricky road for pitcher Joe Blanton since moving from the mammoth Oakland Coliseum (ranked 10th-most pitcher-friendly park from 2004-08) to cozy Citizens Bank Park. Let’s take a look at how Blanton recorded his outs with Oakland and Philadelphia:

Known as more of a groundball pitcher in his days with Oakland, Blanton’s groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB) has dropped since being traded to the Phillies last July. He has allowed twice as many home runs per nine innings since being traded, largely because flyballs that would be caught in Oakland are several rows deep into the stands in Philadelphia. While he helped the team win a World Series last October, the verdict is still out on wheter or not the Blanton acquisition was a sound long-term investment, considering the young talent former GM Pat Gillick sacrificed.

But while Blanton struggles to adjust to a small ballpark, veteran Jamie Moyer has shown an impressive ability to quickly adapt to tighter park dimensions:

Acquired in a waiver trade with the Seattle Mariners in August 2006, Moyer’s story is much like Blanton’s in that they both moved from extreme pitcher-friendly ballparks (Seatte’s Safeco Field was the sixth-most pitcher-friendly park from 2002-06) to hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. But what has set Moyer apart is his ability to alter his game plan to take better advantage of the superior defense of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, and Ryan Howard. Since the statistics became available in 2002, Moyer has transformed from a flyball pitcher at Safeco Field to a groundball pitcher in Philadelphia. His groundballs have increased by nearly 5% while he has cut down on flyballs by 5.4% since donning red pinstripes.

But there are simply too many variables in projecting a pitcher’s ability to adjust to a new park, so let’s shift our attention to some names that have been connected to the Phillies in recent weeks.

Most recently, the Phillies were rumored to have had serious interest in Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang, and SI’s Jon Heyman even reported that Amaro had offered up a prospect for the sinkerballer but was turned down. Even so, the point is now moot because Wang landed on the disabled list this past weekend with a shoulder strain and won’t even begin a rehab program until after next week’s All-Star break.

But there are still a few decent names on the market, albeit most options are not the prototypical aces that Amaro has been searching for. Second-tier pitchers include Arizona’s Doug Davis and Jon Garland, Colorado’s Jason Marquis, Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang, and Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm and Zach Duke. Davis and Marquis are both free agents at season’s end while the rest are either signed long-term with their respective clubs, or, in the case of Jon Garland, hold a mutual option for 2010 with their current team.

Looking purely at groundball statistics, Jason Marquis would seem to be be the best fit, having just gotten the nod for his first All-Star appearance:

Marquis will be a free agent at season’s end and shouldn’t cost Amaro too much in terms of a prospect haul. The current problem lies in the Rockies’ resurgence that has put them just two games back of the wildcard and still very much in contention. But Marquis’ numbers have been incredibly consistent over the past several seasons and he is in the midst of a career year. His HR/9 rating has been dropping steadily and he pitched fairly well at Wrigley Field, which was ranked as the second and eighth hitter-friendliest park in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

If he becomes available, Marquis would serve as a fairly inexpensive replacement for Rodrigo Lopez and give the Phillies a much-needed sinkerballer for the rest of the year. But short-term replacements don’t carry much merit when they walk in November.

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports had reported last month that the Phillies had looked at Pittsburgh southpaw Paul Maholm, but that Amaro was unimpressed and moved on. To preface my argument, let’s have a look at Amaro’s  gem of a quote this past May regarding his take on defensive statistics when looking at possible acquisitions:

“I do not buy numbers defensively. At all. I look at fielding percentage. But that other business? I don’t buy it a lick.”

Well, Shane Victorino has a .994 fielding percentage this year. He has made one error. But Matt Stairs, well, he’s flashing a 1.000 fielding percentage and hasn’t made an error since 2007. According to the Rubetarian philosophy, that must mean that Stairs’ defensive skills are superior to those of Victorino. “That other business” probably refers to the innumerable defensive metrics calculated by sabermetricians far and wide that give detailed ratings for every aspect of a player’s performance. If Amaro feels that way about defense, let’s assume that he feels the same about pitching, because passing on Paul Maholm is the wrong move.

Maholm, a 27 year-old lefty and groundball extraordinaire, just signed a three-year, $14.5M contract with an option for 2012 this past January, and should definitely not be on the market. But if Pirates GM Neal Huntington wants to trade him, he is the guy Amaro should be pursuing aggressively. Take a look at his numbers:

While his ERA and WHIP might not be overly impressive, his groundball rates are outstanding. For all the talk Kyle Kendrick got about being a groundball pitcher in 2007, KK’s GB/FB ratio was just 1.48 compared to Maholm’s liftime mark of 1.87. Pittsburgh’s PNC Park sits on the fence between being a neutral park and a pitcher’s park, which helps illustrate the insignificance of field dimensions in relation to Maholm’s pitching style. Maholm is signed very cheaply and is gaining more experience each season. Plug him into a clubhouse with Jamie Moyer and put the Phillies’ defense behind him and his numbers will be sure to improve even more.

The prospect haul to acquire a pitcher like Maholm would likely be massive, but it is a gamble that the organization should make. The Phillies minor league system is stacked with solid pitching prospects at every level, and Amaro could certainly part with a couple (not named Kyle Drabek) to bring in a proven pitcher that utilizes the infield defense.

If Amaro can’t get Maholm, let’s hope he gets Marquis.

Photo courtesy of Reuters Pictures.