A tale of two southpaws (Part One)

Welcome to Part One of a two-part series that will show you how Cole Hamels’ 2009 campaign wasn’t nearly as bad as you thought and why J.A. Happ won’t be nearly as good in 2010. By the time we’re through, you’ll know a little bit more about BABIP, xFIP, and why it might have been a good idea to trade Happ this past offseason.

We’re just six days away from Roy Halladay reporting for duty as pitchers and catchers arrive at Bright House Field in sunny Clearwater where the sunshine brings 60-degree temperatures in mid-February. Dammit, New Jersey.

I don’t see much reason to worry about Halladay. Hell, he’s Roy Halladay. Instead, many eyes will focus on Cole Hamels this spring, who is expected to rebound from what most fans would call an ineffective 2009 season. Another major storyline to keep your eye on is J.A. Happ and his pursuit of success at the major league level. But he’s going to regress, and regress hard, no matter how much you don’t want to admit it.

Taking a look at the basic numbers, it would appear that Happ had a much better year than Hamels in 2009. Take a look for yourself:

Hamels suffered from a ballooned ERA, a H/9 ratio that took a major leap from 7.6 in 2008 to 9.6 in 2009, and a WHIP that increased by more than 0.2. The only thing that Happ seemed to struggle with was a low K:BB ratio, but everything else looks just fine. So how could one pitcher go from World Series MVP to dud and another go from fringe prospect to Rooke of the Year runner-up?

There is one common link: BABIP.

BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play,  is a statistic that accounts for any ball put into play that a fielder can manipulate. Home runs and strikeouts are not counted in BABIP because the fielder can’t catch a ball ten rows deep in the stands or make a defensive play on a strikeout. BABIP has the tendency to level out around .300 for the league by the end of each season, proven by 2008’s league average BABIP mark of .301 and .302 in 2009.

Honestly, BABIP does a good job telling us how lucky a pitcher was in a given performance. Say Cole Hamels is facing Brian McCann, who bloops a soft fly ball behind first base. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth converge but fail to communicate as the ball drops in the grass for what Tim McCarver would call a “check swing plop job.” It may sound like a defensive gaffe but that bloop single would ultimately raise Hamels’ BABIP.  The bottom line is that the ball fell for a hit. BABIP doesn’t account for defensive positioning or fielder miscommunication.

With that in mind, take a look at Cole’s BABIP and a few other metrics over the past two seasons:

Hamels saw his BABIP take a major leap from .270 in 2008 to .325 in 2009. A BABIP as low as .270 just isn’t sustainable over the long run, so it was expected to rise last season. But an increase of 55 points is astronomical for a pitcher to withstand, which can explain why his H/9 ratio and WHIP took such a beating.

Since I’ve got your attention, take a look at xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching). This is a really helpful tool that shows what a pitcher’s ERA really should be, based on the outcomes he can truly control — walks, strikeouts and home runs; then normalizes the home run component based on his fly balls and home ballpark. By taking these variables into account, xFIP will show you how effective a pitcher really was by removing defense from the equation.

As you look across the board you’ll notice that his xFIP, BB/9, K/9 and HR/9 are nearly identical from 2008 to 2009. Hamels’ K:BB ratio actually improved based on fewer innings pitched last season.

The correlation between BABIP and basic numbers like ERA and WHIP is undeniable. Believe it or not, Hamels still had a pretty damn good year. He was just the victim of bad luck.

On the other side of the coin is J.A. Happ, who was the beneficiary of a .270 BABIP in 2009. While Happ lacks some of the skill and major league experience that Hamels possesses,  a low BABIP and a massive amount of help from his defense helped him post an outstanding ERA and fool thousands of Phillies fans into believing he’s a legitimate #2 starter.

Unfortunately for the masses, that’s just not the case. Check back in tomorrow and I’ll show you exactly why Happ will regress.