A tale of two southpaws (Part Two)

Hopefully you’ve had some time to let the ideas behind BABIP and xFIP marinade in your head overnight, so I’ll jump right in.

I left off yesterday talking about J.A. Happ’s low BABIP in 2009, which is likely to normalize in 2010. Happ’s efficiency is a bit tougher to measure due to his lack of time in the majors and the fact that he bounced around the bullpen and starting rotation. But let’s have at it anyway:

Happ’s walk rate and strikeout rate vary a bit too much to safely conclude that he’s been consistent from year to year, but we must remember that the sample size from 2008 is very small. From a quick glance, I think it’s safe to say that Happ is still learning what kind of pitcher he really is.

Will we see a repeat of 2009’s performance? Absolutely not. His numbers just aren’t sustainable. Keep in mind that the league average BABIP in 2008 and 2009 was .301 and .302, respectively, and it’s clear to see that Happ is due for some degree of regression. Note the tremendous difference in ERA and xFIP over the past two seasons. A low BABIP combined with an impossibly low split when pitching with runners in scoring position is bound to bring his basic numbers back down to earth.

The league average split for pitchers throwing with runners in scoring position last season was .260/.353/.404 with a .295 BABIP; the true definition of average. With runners in scoring position, Happ pitched to a tune of .158/.253/.226 with a BABIP of .181. Happ’s performance, noting that batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and BABIP were all at least 100 points lower than league average is shocking, and damn near unheard of.

Happ still has plenty of time to grow, but I’m curious to see how he reacts when he can’t match the expectations of the new season. Many fans thought it was crazy to toss his name around in the Roy Halladay trade talks, but I’m a firm believer that we should have sold high on him while we could. Thanks for former GM J.P. Ricciardi, Toronto has a history of using sabermetrics to grade players in their front office, so there’s a chance that they took a deeper look at Happ’s statistics and made note of his impending regression and fittingly dropped his name from the conversation.

On the plus side, Happ could still be that league average #4 starter with flashes of brilliance for the Phillies. Being cost-controlled for the next three years doesn’t hurt matters either, as the Phillies payroll is already locked in at $130M in 2011.