Coulda woulda shoulda: what wasn’t meant to be

Browsing through baseball-reference.com at breakfast this morning, I started clicking my way through the amateur draft results of the past decade and nearly spit out my coffee thinking about what could have been.

The Phillies’ scouting and player development office, formerly led by Mike Arbuckle (who jumped ship to Kansas City after the 2008 championship), did a damn fine job drafting the bulk of today’s core. Since 2000, the Phillies’ first round picks go as follows:

2000: 2B Chase Utley (15th overall)
2001: RHP Gavin Floyd (4th overall)
2002: LHP Cole Hamels (17th overall)
2003: not awarded pick (Jim Thome signing)
2004: OF Greg Golson (21st overall)
2005: not awarded pick (Jon Lieber signing)
2006: RHP Kyle Drabek (18th overall), SS Adrian Cardenas (37th overall)
2007: LHP Joe Savery (19th overall), C Travis d’Arnaud (37th overall)
2008: SS Anthony Hewitt (24th overall), OF Zach Collier (34th overall)
2009: not awarded pick (Raul Ibanez signing)

In that list are two current all-stars, two prospects included in the package that acquired Roy Halladay, and another that helped net us Joe Blanton. Not bad at all.

But what caught my attention was the selection of Gavin Floyd in 2001. Drafted just behind Joe Mauer and Mark Prior, Floyd’s ascension through the Phillies’ minor league system was Hamels-esque (even though Cole wasn’t drafted until the next year). He threw a no-hitter in his first pro season at low-A Lakewood and made his major league debut in 2004 as a September callup. But his performance took a nightmarish turn after the season and he was twice demoted to the minor leagues in 2005 and 2006 after bouts of ineffectiveness. Looking to make a big splash in the offseason, then-GM Pat Gillick traded Floyd and two prospects to Chicago’s south side, netting Freddy Garcia in return. And we all know how that turned out.

A rotation of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jon Lieber and Jamie Moyer was expected to be supplemented nicely with the likes of Garcia, despite his signs of wear with Chicago in 2006. Nope. He threw just 58 innings over 11 starts, amassing a 1.603 WHIP and a 1.9 HR/9 rating. Gillick was on the hook for Garcia’s $10M salary regardless of his performance, so the trade turned out to be a major dud. Floyd has gone on to experience some decent success in Chicago and signed a four year, $15.5M contract last March. Congrats Gavin, we wish you could have done it here.

Baseball is perhaps the toughest sport in which to gauge a prospect’s future success in the major leagues. Hell, Albert Pujols was a 13th round pick in 1999. Some prospects fizzle out into mediocrity, others end up in Cooperstown. But focusing on the 2001 draft, the Phillies selected Floyd ahead of Mark Teixeira (Rangers, 5th overall), David Wright (Mets, 38th overall), and Dan Haren (Cardinals, 72nd overall). Now imagine Wright completing an all-star home grown infield of Rollins, Utley and Howard. Or picture the current rotation with Dan Haren replacing Jamie Moyer.

Of course, there are countless variables that could have drastically altered the way those players’ careers would have ended up had they been drafted by Arbuckle & Co.But it’s nice to dream, isn’t it? For now, all we can really do is hope that Anthony Hewitt puts the pieces together this year.