Two out of three ain’t bad…

And by three I really mean one hundred.

Baseball America released their annual top 100 prospects list yesterday, and two current Phillies farmhands made the cut.

Domonic Brown (15) and Phillippe Aumont (93) are under the organization’s microscope now, and I’m curious to see how both players react to the sudden influx of media attention. From interviews I’ve seen/read so far in spring training, Brown sounds like he’ll be ready to take over for Jayson Werth in 2011 if need be, and Aumont seems primed to at least work on his secondary pitches as a starting pitcher in AA-Reading.

You might notice that four former Phillies also made the cut. Kyle Drabek (25), Michael Taylor (29), Jason Knapp (64), and Travis d’Arnaud (81) all once donned the organizational cap. But don’t get depressed. While the Phillies farm system is much weaker today than in previous seasons, remember that Drabek, Taylor and d’Arnaud were necessary pieces to acquire Roy Halladay for the next four years, and Knapp was a major piece in the trade that gave us 12 starts from Cliff Lee. It’s interesting to note that none of the other prospects in the deadline deal for Lee (Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson) were included in the top 100 list this year.

Check out a short clip of Domonic Brown, courtesy of MLB.com’s top 50 prospect rankings.

There are no words.

Kudos to Todd Zolecki for the picture.

Check back in this week to find out whose rotation has the best 1-2 punch in the game this year, and I’ll also tell you why Ruben Amaro might end up killing this team.

Let me breathe this in for a minute…

Looks like it really happened. He’ll speak to reporters on Friday.

photo courtesy Yong Kim.

Coulda woulda shoulda: what wasn’t meant to be

Browsing through baseball-reference.com at breakfast this morning, I started clicking my way through the amateur draft results of the past decade and nearly spit out my coffee thinking about what could have been.

The Phillies’ scouting and player development office, formerly led by Mike Arbuckle (who jumped ship to Kansas City after the 2008 championship), did a damn fine job drafting the bulk of today’s core. Since 2000, the Phillies’ first round picks go as follows:

2000: 2B Chase Utley (15th overall)
2001: RHP Gavin Floyd (4th overall)
2002: LHP Cole Hamels (17th overall)
2003: not awarded pick (Jim Thome signing)
2004: OF Greg Golson (21st overall)
2005: not awarded pick (Jon Lieber signing)
2006: RHP Kyle Drabek (18th overall), SS Adrian Cardenas (37th overall)
2007: LHP Joe Savery (19th overall), C Travis d’Arnaud (37th overall)
2008: SS Anthony Hewitt (24th overall), OF Zach Collier (34th overall)
2009: not awarded pick (Raul Ibanez signing)

In that list are two current all-stars, two prospects included in the package that acquired Roy Halladay, and another that helped net us Joe Blanton. Not bad at all.

But what caught my attention was the selection of Gavin Floyd in 2001. Drafted just behind Joe Mauer and Mark Prior, Floyd’s ascension through the Phillies’ minor league system was Hamels-esque (even though Cole wasn’t drafted until the next year). He threw a no-hitter in his first pro season at low-A Lakewood and made his major league debut in 2004 as a September callup. But his performance took a nightmarish turn after the season and he was twice demoted to the minor leagues in 2005 and 2006 after bouts of ineffectiveness. Looking to make a big splash in the offseason, then-GM Pat Gillick traded Floyd and two prospects to Chicago’s south side, netting Freddy Garcia in return. And we all know how that turned out.

A rotation of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jon Lieber and Jamie Moyer was expected to be supplemented nicely with the likes of Garcia, despite his signs of wear with Chicago in 2006. Nope. He threw just 58 innings over 11 starts, amassing a 1.603 WHIP and a 1.9 HR/9 rating. Gillick was on the hook for Garcia’s $10M salary regardless of his performance, so the trade turned out to be a major dud. Floyd has gone on to experience some decent success in Chicago and signed a four year, $15.5M contract last March. Congrats Gavin, we wish you could have done it here.

Baseball is perhaps the toughest sport in which to gauge a prospect’s future success in the major leagues. Hell, Albert Pujols was a 13th round pick in 1999. Some prospects fizzle out into mediocrity, others end up in Cooperstown. But focusing on the 2001 draft, the Phillies selected Floyd ahead of Mark Teixeira (Rangers, 5th overall), David Wright (Mets, 38th overall), and Dan Haren (Cardinals, 72nd overall). Now imagine Wright completing an all-star home grown infield of Rollins, Utley and Howard. Or picture the current rotation with Dan Haren replacing Jamie Moyer.

Of course, there are countless variables that could have drastically altered the way those players’ careers would have ended up had they been drafted by Arbuckle & Co.But it’s nice to dream, isn’t it? For now, all we can really do is hope that Anthony Hewitt puts the pieces together this year.

A tale of two southpaws (Part Two)

Hopefully you’ve had some time to let the ideas behind BABIP and xFIP marinade in your head overnight, so I’ll jump right in.

I left off yesterday talking about J.A. Happ’s low BABIP in 2009, which is likely to normalize in 2010. Happ’s efficiency is a bit tougher to measure due to his lack of time in the majors and the fact that he bounced around the bullpen and starting rotation. But let’s have at it anyway:

Happ’s walk rate and strikeout rate vary a bit too much to safely conclude that he’s been consistent from year to year, but we must remember that the sample size from 2008 is very small. From a quick glance, I think it’s safe to say that Happ is still learning what kind of pitcher he really is.

Will we see a repeat of 2009’s performance? Absolutely not. His numbers just aren’t sustainable. Keep in mind that the league average BABIP in 2008 and 2009 was .301 and .302, respectively, and it’s clear to see that Happ is due for some degree of regression. Note the tremendous difference in ERA and xFIP over the past two seasons. A low BABIP combined with an impossibly low split when pitching with runners in scoring position is bound to bring his basic numbers back down to earth.

The league average split for pitchers throwing with runners in scoring position last season was .260/.353/.404 with a .295 BABIP; the true definition of average. With runners in scoring position, Happ pitched to a tune of .158/.253/.226 with a BABIP of .181. Happ’s performance, noting that batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and BABIP were all at least 100 points lower than league average is shocking, and damn near unheard of.

Happ still has plenty of time to grow, but I’m curious to see how he reacts when he can’t match the expectations of the new season. Many fans thought it was crazy to toss his name around in the Roy Halladay trade talks, but I’m a firm believer that we should have sold high on him while we could. Thanks for former GM J.P. Ricciardi, Toronto has a history of using sabermetrics to grade players in their front office, so there’s a chance that they took a deeper look at Happ’s statistics and made note of his impending regression and fittingly dropped his name from the conversation.

On the plus side, Happ could still be that league average #4 starter with flashes of brilliance for the Phillies. Being cost-controlled for the next three years doesn’t hurt matters either, as the Phillies payroll is already locked in at $130M in 2011.

A tale of two southpaws (Part One)

Welcome to Part One of a two-part series that will show you how Cole Hamels’ 2009 campaign wasn’t nearly as bad as you thought and why J.A. Happ won’t be nearly as good in 2010. By the time we’re through, you’ll know a little bit more about BABIP, xFIP, and why it might have been a good idea to trade Happ this past offseason.

We’re just six days away from Roy Halladay reporting for duty as pitchers and catchers arrive at Bright House Field in sunny Clearwater where the sunshine brings 60-degree temperatures in mid-February. Dammit, New Jersey.

I don’t see much reason to worry about Halladay. Hell, he’s Roy Halladay. Instead, many eyes will focus on Cole Hamels this spring, who is expected to rebound from what most fans would call an ineffective 2009 season. Another major storyline to keep your eye on is J.A. Happ and his pursuit of success at the major league level. But he’s going to regress, and regress hard, no matter how much you don’t want to admit it.

Taking a look at the basic numbers, it would appear that Happ had a much better year than Hamels in 2009. Take a look for yourself:

Hamels suffered from a ballooned ERA, a H/9 ratio that took a major leap from 7.6 in 2008 to 9.6 in 2009, and a WHIP that increased by more than 0.2. The only thing that Happ seemed to struggle with was a low K:BB ratio, but everything else looks just fine. So how could one pitcher go from World Series MVP to dud and another go from fringe prospect to Rooke of the Year runner-up?

There is one common link: BABIP.

BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play,  is a statistic that accounts for any ball put into play that a fielder can manipulate. Home runs and strikeouts are not counted in BABIP because the fielder can’t catch a ball ten rows deep in the stands or make a defensive play on a strikeout. BABIP has the tendency to level out around .300 for the league by the end of each season, proven by 2008’s league average BABIP mark of .301 and .302 in 2009.

Honestly, BABIP does a good job telling us how lucky a pitcher was in a given performance. Say Cole Hamels is facing Brian McCann, who bloops a soft fly ball behind first base. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jayson Werth converge but fail to communicate as the ball drops in the grass for what Tim McCarver would call a “check swing plop job.” It may sound like a defensive gaffe but that bloop single would ultimately raise Hamels’ BABIP.  The bottom line is that the ball fell for a hit. BABIP doesn’t account for defensive positioning or fielder miscommunication.

With that in mind, take a look at Cole’s BABIP and a few other metrics over the past two seasons:

Hamels saw his BABIP take a major leap from .270 in 2008 to .325 in 2009. A BABIP as low as .270 just isn’t sustainable over the long run, so it was expected to rise last season. But an increase of 55 points is astronomical for a pitcher to withstand, which can explain why his H/9 ratio and WHIP took such a beating.

Since I’ve got your attention, take a look at xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching). This is a really helpful tool that shows what a pitcher’s ERA really should be, based on the outcomes he can truly control — walks, strikeouts and home runs; then normalizes the home run component based on his fly balls and home ballpark. By taking these variables into account, xFIP will show you how effective a pitcher really was by removing defense from the equation.

As you look across the board you’ll notice that his xFIP, BB/9, K/9 and HR/9 are nearly identical from 2008 to 2009. Hamels’ K:BB ratio actually improved based on fewer innings pitched last season.

The correlation between BABIP and basic numbers like ERA and WHIP is undeniable. Believe it or not, Hamels still had a pretty damn good year. He was just the victim of bad luck.

On the other side of the coin is J.A. Happ, who was the beneficiary of a .270 BABIP in 2009. While Happ lacks some of the skill and major league experience that Hamels possesses,  a low BABIP and a massive amount of help from his defense helped him post an outstanding ERA and fool thousands of Phillies fans into believing he’s a legitimate #2 starter.

Unfortunately for the masses, that’s just not the case. Check back in tomorrow and I’ll show you exactly why Happ will regress.

Rauuuuul vs. Pat the Bat

Some early morning food for thought in cost-per-item form:

Enjoy your Saturday.

And the Best Fit Is…

With Brett Myers likely out for the season, rookie Antonio Bastardo on the disabled list with a shoulder strain, and the collective 5.19 ERA of Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton, the Phillies badly need another arm in the rotation. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro has stated several times that he is looking to acquire a front-line starter, and manager Charlie Manuel has made comments about his desire to add an ace to compliment Cole Hamels.

The trade market is only just beginning to develop as teams drop further out of contention and throw in the towel for the season. But the market has not evolved as many had expected. Toronto’s recent surge almost certainly takes Roy Halladay off the market, Astros owner Drayton McLane won’t give GM Ed Wade the nod to trade Roy Oswalt, and injuries have made Erik Bedard, Jake Peavy and Brandon Webb longshots to be moved.

But not every pitcher will mesh with the demand to play the majority of his games at Citizens Bank Park. The key is to find a guy who records the majority of his outs on ground balls, considering that CBP gives such an extreme advantage to flyball hitters. Since its inaugural opening in 2004, Citizens Bank Park has been consistently ranked in the top half of hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, according to ESPN’s park factor calculations. The porches are short and the winds often blow out, serving as a thorn in the side of pitchers from both dugouts. The stadium’s dimensions can considerably alter pitching statistics unless the pitcher learns how to modify his game and keep the ball on the ground for his defense, thus making it crucial for Amaro to modify the pitching rotation to best suit the ballpark. For example, Padres righty Chris Young is a perfect fit for the massive dimensions at Petco Park as he records nearly 55% of his outs on flyballs. On the other end of the spectrum is Brandon Webb who pitches at hitter-friendly Chase Field, but manages to record an outrageous 64% of his outs on groundballs.

It has been a tricky road for pitcher Joe Blanton since moving from the mammoth Oakland Coliseum (ranked 10th-most pitcher-friendly park from 2004-08) to cozy Citizens Bank Park. Let’s take a look at how Blanton recorded his outs with Oakland and Philadelphia:

Known as more of a groundball pitcher in his days with Oakland, Blanton’s groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB) has dropped since being traded to the Phillies last July. He has allowed twice as many home runs per nine innings since being traded, largely because flyballs that would be caught in Oakland are several rows deep into the stands in Philadelphia. While he helped the team win a World Series last October, the verdict is still out on wheter or not the Blanton acquisition was a sound long-term investment, considering the young talent former GM Pat Gillick sacrificed.

But while Blanton struggles to adjust to a small ballpark, veteran Jamie Moyer has shown an impressive ability to quickly adapt to tighter park dimensions:

Acquired in a waiver trade with the Seattle Mariners in August 2006, Moyer’s story is much like Blanton’s in that they both moved from extreme pitcher-friendly ballparks (Seatte’s Safeco Field was the sixth-most pitcher-friendly park from 2002-06) to hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. But what has set Moyer apart is his ability to alter his game plan to take better advantage of the superior defense of Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, and Ryan Howard. Since the statistics became available in 2002, Moyer has transformed from a flyball pitcher at Safeco Field to a groundball pitcher in Philadelphia. His groundballs have increased by nearly 5% while he has cut down on flyballs by 5.4% since donning red pinstripes.

But there are simply too many variables in projecting a pitcher’s ability to adjust to a new park, so let’s shift our attention to some names that have been connected to the Phillies in recent weeks.

Most recently, the Phillies were rumored to have had serious interest in Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang, and SI’s Jon Heyman even reported that Amaro had offered up a prospect for the sinkerballer but was turned down. Even so, the point is now moot because Wang landed on the disabled list this past weekend with a shoulder strain and won’t even begin a rehab program until after next week’s All-Star break.

But there are still a few decent names on the market, albeit most options are not the prototypical aces that Amaro has been searching for. Second-tier pitchers include Arizona’s Doug Davis and Jon Garland, Colorado’s Jason Marquis, Cincinnati’s Aaron Harang, and Pittsburgh’s Paul Maholm and Zach Duke. Davis and Marquis are both free agents at season’s end while the rest are either signed long-term with their respective clubs, or, in the case of Jon Garland, hold a mutual option for 2010 with their current team.

Looking purely at groundball statistics, Jason Marquis would seem to be be the best fit, having just gotten the nod for his first All-Star appearance:

Marquis will be a free agent at season’s end and shouldn’t cost Amaro too much in terms of a prospect haul. The current problem lies in the Rockies’ resurgence that has put them just two games back of the wildcard and still very much in contention. But Marquis’ numbers have been incredibly consistent over the past several seasons and he is in the midst of a career year. His HR/9 rating has been dropping steadily and he pitched fairly well at Wrigley Field, which was ranked as the second and eighth hitter-friendliest park in 2007 and 2008, respectively.

If he becomes available, Marquis would serve as a fairly inexpensive replacement for Rodrigo Lopez and give the Phillies a much-needed sinkerballer for the rest of the year. But short-term replacements don’t carry much merit when they walk in November.

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports had reported last month that the Phillies had looked at Pittsburgh southpaw Paul Maholm, but that Amaro was unimpressed and moved on. To preface my argument, let’s have a look at Amaro’s  gem of a quote this past May regarding his take on defensive statistics when looking at possible acquisitions:

“I do not buy numbers defensively. At all. I look at fielding percentage. But that other business? I don’t buy it a lick.”

Well, Shane Victorino has a .994 fielding percentage this year. He has made one error. But Matt Stairs, well, he’s flashing a 1.000 fielding percentage and hasn’t made an error since 2007. According to the Rubetarian philosophy, that must mean that Stairs’ defensive skills are superior to those of Victorino. “That other business” probably refers to the innumerable defensive metrics calculated by sabermetricians far and wide that give detailed ratings for every aspect of a player’s performance. If Amaro feels that way about defense, let’s assume that he feels the same about pitching, because passing on Paul Maholm is the wrong move.

Maholm, a 27 year-old lefty and groundball extraordinaire, just signed a three-year, $14.5M contract with an option for 2012 this past January, and should definitely not be on the market. But if Pirates GM Neal Huntington wants to trade him, he is the guy Amaro should be pursuing aggressively. Take a look at his numbers:

While his ERA and WHIP might not be overly impressive, his groundball rates are outstanding. For all the talk Kyle Kendrick got about being a groundball pitcher in 2007, KK’s GB/FB ratio was just 1.48 compared to Maholm’s liftime mark of 1.87. Pittsburgh’s PNC Park sits on the fence between being a neutral park and a pitcher’s park, which helps illustrate the insignificance of field dimensions in relation to Maholm’s pitching style. Maholm is signed very cheaply and is gaining more experience each season. Plug him into a clubhouse with Jamie Moyer and put the Phillies’ defense behind him and his numbers will be sure to improve even more.

The prospect haul to acquire a pitcher like Maholm would likely be massive, but it is a gamble that the organization should make. The Phillies minor league system is stacked with solid pitching prospects at every level, and Amaro could certainly part with a couple (not named Kyle Drabek) to bring in a proven pitcher that utilizes the infield defense.

If Amaro can’t get Maholm, let’s hope he gets Marquis.

Photo courtesy of Reuters Pictures.